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Full project finance cash flow model with debt service, reserves, and equity distributions
Project IRR
8.8%
Equity IRR
11.0%
Min DSCR (CFADS)
1.30x
Avg DSCR (CFADS)
1.30x
Min LLCR
1.45x
NPV
$21.3M
Gearing
75.0%
Payback Period
11.9 yrs
Implied LCOE: $46.9/MWhWithin IRENA range
IRENA benchmark (Onshore Wind): $25-55/MWh
Source: IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024
50 semi-annual periods. All amounts in USD thousands.
| Line Item | 2026-H1 | 2026-H2 | 2027-H1 | 2027-H2 | 2028-H1 | 2028-H2 | 2029-H1 | 2029-H2 | 2030-H1 | 2030-H2 | 2031-H1 | 2031-H2 | 2032-H1 | 2032-H2 | 2033-H1 | 2033-H2 | 2034-H1 | 2034-H2 | 2035-H1 | 2035-H2 | 2036-H1 | 2036-H2 | 2037-H1 | 2037-H2 | 2038-H1 | 2038-H2 | 2039-H1 | 2039-H2 | 2040-H1 | 2040-H2 | 2041-H1 | 2041-H2 | 2042-H1 | 2042-H2 | 2043-H1 | 2043-H2 | 2044-H1 | 2044-H2 | 2045-H1 | 2045-H2 | 2046-H1 | 2046-H2 | 2047-H1 | 2047-H2 | 2048-H1 | 2048-H2 | 2049-H1 | 2049-H2 | 2050-H1 | 2050-H2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Production (MWh) | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 | 120,503 | 194,857 |
| Total Losses (MWh) | 9,945 | 16,081 | 10,166 | 16,439 | 10,387 | 16,796 | 10,607 | 17,152 | 10,827 | 17,507 | 11,046 | 17,862 | 11,265 | 18,216 | 11,484 | 18,569 | 11,702 | 18,922 | 11,919 | 19,274 | 12,136 | 19,625 | 12,353 | 19,975 | 12,569 | 20,325 | 12,785 | 20,674 | 13,001 | 21,022 | 13,216 | 21,370 | 13,430 | 21,717 | 13,644 | 22,063 | 13,858 | 22,409 | 14,071 | 22,754 | 14,284 | 23,098 | 14,497 | 23,441 | 14,709 | 23,784 | 14,920 | 24,126 | 15,131 | 24,468 |
| Net Production (MWh) | 110,558 | 178,775 | 110,337 | 178,418 | 110,117 | 178,061 | 109,896 | 177,705 | 109,677 | 177,349 | 109,457 | 176,995 | 109,238 | 176,641 | 109,020 | 176,287 | 108,802 | 175,935 | 108,584 | 175,583 | 108,367 | 175,232 | 108,150 | 174,881 | 107,934 | 174,532 | 107,718 | 174,183 | 107,503 | 173,834 | 107,288 | 173,487 | 107,073 | 173,140 | 106,859 | 172,793 | 106,645 | 172,448 | 106,432 | 172,103 | 106,219 | 171,759 | 106,007 | 171,415 | 105,795 | 171,072 | 105,583 | 170,730 | 105,372 | 170,389 |
| Revenue | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PPA Revenue | 6,878 | 11,121 | 7,001 | 11,321 | 7,127 | 11,524 | 7,255 | 11,731 | 7,385 | 11,942 | 7,518 | 12,156 | 7,653 | 12,375 | 7,790 | 12,597 | 7,930 | 12,823 | 8,073 | 13,054 | 8,218 | 13,288 | 8,365 | 13,527 | 8,515 | 13,770 | 8,668 | 14,017 | 8,824 | 14,269 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Merchant Revenue | 1,116 | 1,805 | 1,130 | 1,827 | 1,143 | 1,849 | 1,157 | 1,871 | 1,171 | 1,893 | 1,184 | 1,915 | 1,198 | 1,938 | 1,212 | 1,961 | 1,227 | 1,984 | 1,241 | 2,007 | 1,255 | 2,030 | 1,270 | 2,054 | 1,285 | 2,077 | 1,300 | 2,101 | 1,314 | 2,125 | 6,647 | 10,749 | 6,723 | 10,871 | 6,799 | 10,995 | 6,876 | 11,119 | 6,954 | 11,244 | 7,032 | 11,370 | 7,110 | 11,497 | 7,189 | 11,625 | 7,269 | 11,754 | 7,349 | 11,884 |
| Other Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total Revenue | 7,994 | 12,927 | 8,131 | 13,148 | 8,270 | 13,373 | 8,412 | 13,602 | 8,556 | 13,835 | 8,702 | 14,072 | 8,851 | 14,313 | 9,003 | 14,558 | 9,157 | 14,807 | 9,314 | 15,060 | 9,473 | 15,318 | 9,635 | 15,580 | 9,800 | 15,847 | 9,968 | 16,118 | 10,138 | 16,394 | 6,647 | 10,749 | 6,723 | 10,871 | 6,799 | 10,995 | 6,876 | 11,119 | 6,954 | 11,244 | 7,032 | 11,370 | 7,110 | 11,497 | 7,189 | 11,625 | 7,269 | 11,754 | 7,349 | 11,884 |
| Operating Costs | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed O&M | -1,620 | -1,620 | -1,652 | -1,652 | -1,685 | -1,685 | -1,719 | -1,719 | -1,754 | -1,754 | -1,789 | -1,789 | -1,824 | -1,824 | -1,861 | -1,861 | -1,898 | -1,898 | -1,936 | -1,936 | -1,975 | -1,975 | -2,014 | -2,014 | -2,055 | -2,055 | -2,096 | -2,096 | -2,138 | -2,138 | -2,180 | -2,180 | -2,224 | -2,224 | -2,268 | -2,268 | -2,314 | -2,314 | -2,360 | -2,360 | -2,407 | -2,407 | -2,455 | -2,455 | -2,504 | -2,504 | -2,555 | -2,555 | -2,606 | -2,606 |
| Variable O&M | -239 | -386 | -243 | -393 | -247 | -400 | -252 | -407 | -256 | -415 | -261 | -422 | -266 | -430 | -270 | -437 | -275 | -445 | -280 | -453 | -285 | -461 | -290 | -470 | -296 | -478 | -301 | -487 | -306 | -495 | -312 | -504 | -317 | -513 | -323 | -523 | -329 | -532 | -335 | -542 | -341 | -551 | -347 | -561 | -353 | -571 | -360 | -582 | -366 | -592 |
| Insurance | -270 | -270 | -275 | -275 | -281 | -281 | -287 | -287 | -292 | -292 | -298 | -298 | -304 | -304 | -310 | -310 | -316 | -316 | -323 | -323 | -329 | -329 | -336 | -336 | -342 | -342 | -349 | -349 | -356 | -356 | -363 | -363 | -371 | -371 | -378 | -378 | -386 | -386 | -393 | -393 | -401 | -401 | -409 | -409 | -417 | -417 | -426 | -426 | -434 | -434 |
| Land Lease | -216 | -216 | -220 | -220 | -225 | -225 | -229 | -229 | -234 | -234 | -238 | -238 | -243 | -243 | -248 | -248 | -253 | -253 | -258 | -258 | -263 | -263 | -269 | -269 | -274 | -274 | -279 | -279 | -285 | -285 | -291 | -291 | -297 | -297 | -302 | -302 | -309 | -309 | -315 | -315 | -321 | -321 | -327 | -327 | -334 | -334 | -341 | -341 | -347 | -347 |
| Grid Charges | -54 | -54 | -55 | -55 | -56 | -56 | -57 | -57 | -58 | -58 | -60 | -60 | -61 | -61 | -62 | -62 | -63 | -63 | -65 | -65 | -66 | -66 | -67 | -67 | -68 | -68 | -70 | -70 | -71 | -71 | -73 | -73 | -74 | -74 | -76 | -76 | -77 | -77 | -79 | -79 | -80 | -80 | -82 | -82 | -83 | -83 | -85 | -85 | -87 | -87 |
| Asset Management | -162 | -162 | -165 | -165 | -169 | -169 | -172 | -172 | -175 | -175 | -179 | -179 | -182 | -182 | -186 | -186 | -190 | -190 | -194 | -194 | -197 | -197 | -201 | -201 | -205 | -205 | -210 | -210 | -214 | -214 | -218 | -218 | -222 | -222 | -227 | -227 | -231 | -231 | -236 | -236 | -241 | -241 | -246 | -246 | -250 | -250 | -255 | -255 | -261 | -261 |
| Total OpEx | -2,561 | -2,708 | -2,612 | -2,762 | -2,663 | -2,816 | -2,716 | -2,871 | -2,770 | -2,928 | -2,825 | -2,986 | -2,881 | -3,045 | -2,938 | -3,105 | -2,996 | -3,166 | -3,055 | -3,228 | -3,116 | -3,292 | -3,178 | -3,357 | -3,241 | -3,423 | -3,305 | -3,490 | -3,370 | -3,559 | -3,437 | -3,629 | -3,505 | -3,701 | -3,575 | -3,774 | -3,645 | -3,848 | -3,718 | -3,924 | -3,791 | -4,002 | -3,866 | -4,081 | -3,943 | -4,161 | -4,021 | -4,243 | -4,101 | -4,327 |
| EBITDA | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 5,433 | 10,218 | 5,519 | 10,386 | 5,607 | 10,557 | 5,696 | 10,731 | 5,786 | 10,907 | 5,878 | 11,086 | 5,971 | 11,268 | 6,065 | 11,453 | 6,161 | 11,641 | 6,258 | 11,832 | 6,357 | 12,026 | 6,458 | 12,224 | 6,560 | 12,424 | 6,663 | 12,628 | 6,768 | 12,835 | 3,210 | 7,119 | 3,218 | 7,170 | 3,225 | 7,221 | 3,231 | 7,270 | 3,236 | 7,320 | 3,240 | 7,369 | 3,244 | 7,417 | 3,246 | 7,464 | 3,248 | 7,511 | 3,248 | 7,557 |
| Tax & Working Capital | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 30,240 | 30,240 | 18,144 | 18,144 | 10,886 | 10,886 | 6,532 | 6,532 | 3,919 | 3,919 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tax Expense | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -163 | -1,289 | -2,567 | -1,378 | -2,609 | -1,399 | -2,652 | -1,421 | -2,695 | -674 | -1,495 | -676 | -1,506 | -677 | -1,516 | -678 | -1,527 | -680 | -1,537 | -680 | -1,547 | -681 | -1,558 | -682 | -1,567 | -682 | -1,577 | -682 | -1,587 |
| Working Capital Change | 681 | 777 | -762 | 786 | -775 | 803 | -789 | 817 | -802 | 831 | -816 | 841 | -830 | 860 | -844 | 874 | -859 | 889 | -873 | 900 | -888 | 920 | -904 | 936 | -919 | 952 | -935 | 963 | -951 | 984 | -1,568 | 628 | -629 | 635 | -636 | 639 | -644 | 649 | -651 | 656 | -658 | 663 | -665 | 667 | -672 | 677 | -680 | 684 | -687 | 692 |
| PTC Revenue (above CFADS) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CFADS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CFADS | 4,752 | 9,442 | 6,282 | 9,601 | 6,382 | 9,754 | 6,484 | 9,913 | 6,588 | 10,076 | 6,694 | 10,245 | 6,801 | 10,408 | 6,909 | 10,579 | 7,020 | 10,752 | 7,132 | 10,933 | 7,246 | 10,943 | 6,073 | 8,721 | 6,101 | 8,863 | 6,199 | 9,013 | 6,298 | 9,155 | 4,104 | 4,996 | 3,171 | 5,029 | 3,184 | 5,066 | 3,196 | 5,095 | 3,207 | 5,127 | 3,218 | 5,158 | 3,228 | 5,193 | 3,237 | 5,219 | 3,245 | 5,249 | 3,253 | 5,278 |
| Senior Debt | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opening Balance | 113,400 | 113,157 | 109,281 | 107,737 | 103,594 | 101,802 | 95,523 | 93,410 | 86,728 | 84,270 | 77,159 | 74,332 | 66,775 | 63,553 | 55,505 | 51,860 | 43,300 | 39,203 | 30,098 | 25,518 | 15,836 | 10,739 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Interest | -3,413 | -3,387 | -3,289 | -3,242 | -3,117 | -3,047 | -2,875 | -2,796 | -2,610 | -2,522 | -2,322 | -2,237 | -2,009 | -1,902 | -1,670 | -1,552 | -1,303 | -1,173 | -906 | -768 | -477 | -321 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Principal | -243 | -3,876 | -1,544 | -4,143 | -1,792 | -4,456 | -2,113 | -4,830 | -2,458 | -5,228 | -2,827 | -5,644 | -3,222 | -6,104 | -3,644 | -6,585 | -4,097 | -7,097 | -4,580 | -7,642 | -5,097 | -8,096 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Debt Service | -3,656 | -7,263 | -4,832 | -7,385 | -4,909 | -7,503 | -4,988 | -7,626 | -5,068 | -7,751 | -5,149 | -7,881 | -5,231 | -8,006 | -5,315 | -8,137 | -5,400 | -8,271 | -5,486 | -8,410 | -5,573 | -8,418 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Closing Balance | 113,157 | 109,281 | 107,737 | 103,594 | 101,802 | 95,523 | 93,410 | 86,728 | 84,270 | 77,159 | 74,332 | 66,775 | 63,553 | 55,505 | 51,860 | 43,300 | 39,203 | 30,098 | 25,518 | 15,836 | 10,739 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Coverage Ratios | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DSCR (CFADS) | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | 1.30x | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LLCR | 1.45x | 1.47x | 1.50x | 1.52x | 1.55x | 1.58x | 1.65x | 1.69x | 1.78x | 1.83x | 1.95x | 2.01x | 2.18x | 2.28x | 2.53x | 2.67x | 3.05x | 3.30x | 4.08x | 4.68x | 7.09x | 10.12x | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PLCR | 1.57x | 1.59x | 1.61x | 1.63x | 1.66x | 1.68x | 1.75x | 1.78x | 1.86x | 1.90x | 2.01x | 2.07x | 2.22x | 2.30x | 2.53x | 2.67x | 3.05x | 3.30x | 4.08x | 4.68x | 7.09x | 10.12x | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DSRA | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opening | - | 1,097 | 3,276 | 4,725 | 4,909 | 6,382 | 4,988 | 6,484 | 5,068 | 6,588 | 5,149 | 6,694 | 5,231 | 6,801 | 5,315 | 6,909 | 5,400 | 7,020 | 5,486 | 7,132 | 5,573 | 7,246 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Target | 7,263 | 4,832 | 7,385 | 4,909 | 7,503 | 4,988 | 7,626 | 5,068 | 7,751 | 5,149 | 7,881 | 5,231 | 8,006 | 5,315 | 8,137 | 5,400 | 8,271 | 5,486 | 8,410 | 5,573 | 8,418 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Contribution | -1,097 | -2,179 | -1,450 | -184 | -1,473 | - | -1,496 | - | -1,520 | - | -1,545 | - | -1,569 | - | -1,594 | - | -1,620 | - | -1,646 | - | -1,672 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Release | - | - | - | - | - | 1,394 | - | 1,417 | - | 1,439 | - | 1,462 | - | 1,486 | - | 1,510 | - | 1,534 | - | 1,558 | - | 7,246 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Closing | 1,097 | 3,276 | 4,725 | 4,909 | 6,382 | 4,988 | 6,484 | 5,068 | 6,588 | 5,149 | 6,694 | 5,231 | 6,801 | 5,315 | 6,909 | 5,400 | 7,020 | 5,486 | 7,132 | 5,573 | 7,246 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Cash Sweep | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sweep Amount | - | - | - | - | - | -1,823 | - | -1,852 | - | -1,882 | - | -1,913 | - | -1,944 | - | -1,975 | - | -2,007 | - | -2,041 | - | -2,643 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Distributions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PTC Revenue (below CFADS) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Lock-up Status | Locked | Locked | Locked | Open | Locked | Open | Locked | Open | Locked | Open | Locked | Open | Locked | Open | Locked | Open | Locked | Open | Locked | Open | Locked | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open | Open |
| Default Risk | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Equity Distribution | - | - | - | 2,031 | - | 1,823 | - | 1,852 | - | 1,882 | - | 1,913 | - | 1,944 | - | 1,975 | - | 2,007 | - | 2,041 | - | 7,128 | 6,073 | 8,721 | 6,101 | 8,863 | 6,199 | 9,013 | 6,298 | 9,155 | 4,104 | 4,996 | 3,171 | 5,029 | 3,184 | 5,066 | 3,196 | 5,095 | 3,207 | 5,127 | 3,218 | 5,158 | 3,228 | 5,193 | 3,237 | 5,219 | 3,245 | 5,249 | 3,253 | 5,278 |
| Cash Balance | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cash Balance | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |