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Estimate energy production at various probability levels
US range: 850-1800 kWh/m²/year
Typical range: 5-15% for bifacial modules
Typical range: 2-5% annual average
P50 Production
93 GWh
P90 Production
83 GWh
P50 Capacity Factor
10.6%
P90/P50 Ratio
89.7%
P10 (Optimistic)
102 GWh
Specific Yield
926 MWh/MW
Total Uncertainty
8.1%
Lifetime P50
2.1 TWh
Annual production at different probability levels
P10/P50/P90 production over project lifetime with degradation
Contribution to total uncertainty
Standard deviation by category
Uncertainty in historical resource data (satellite/measured)
Site measurement and data quality uncertainty
MCP (Measure-Correlate-Predict) adjustment uncertainty
Uncertainty in extrapolating to turbine/array locations
Uncertainty in energy production model
Year-to-year weather variation
Key production metrics at different probability levels
| Probability | Annual Production | Capacity Factor | Specific Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| P99 | 75 GWh | 8.6% | 752 MWh/MW |
| P90 | 83 GWh | 9.5% | 830 MWh/MW |
| P84 | 85 GWh | 9.7% | 852 MWh/MW |
| P75 | 88 GWh | 10.0% | 876 MWh/MW |
| P50 | 93 GWh | 10.6% | 926 MWh/MW |
| P25 | 98 GWh | 11.1% | 976 MWh/MW |
| P10 | 102 GWh | 11.7% | 1022 MWh/MW |